Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 29, 2005

Sorry, guys. This isn't Boomtown.

Saw II

Improving handily on last year's $6.8 million opening, Saw II earns a solid $12.2 million Friday, already making back its budget three-fold. Horror films usually don't have very good Friday to Sunday multipliers and Saw was no exception, with a 2.68 on this weekend a year ago. We'll knock that down a notch to account for the sequel factor, and go with a 2.5 mutlipler, giving Saw II a still impressive $30.5 million.

The Legend of Zorro

The Antonio Banderas/Catherine Zeta-Jones film earned $5.5 million Friday, actually a back-step from The Mask of Zorro's opening of $7.4 million back in 1998. In this age of box office inflation, that's saying quite a bit. The original managed a 3.03 multiplier on its opening weekend, and given the family-friendly nature of The Legend of Zorro, sounds about right. That would give the sequel a somewhat disappointing $16.7 million.

Prime

The next two releases were pretty much DOA from a mile away and their screen count shows the lack of confidence the studios had in them. Uma Thurman and Meryl Streep's Prime managed $2.1 million Friday, and the rest of the weekend probably won't be too much kinder to it. Figure around $6 million for the weekend.

The Weather Man

After disappointing last month with Lord of War, Nicolas Cage now out and out bombs with The Weather Man, earning $1.4 million Friday. On 1,510 screens, it never really had a chance. Figure a little under $4 million for the weekend as Cage wonders if a National Treasure sequel is in the works.

Notable Holdovers

Doom gets the smack laid down on it and then some, falling a sick 78% from last Friday. The good news here is that it should be able to improve to an overall weekend decline of a mere 70%.

Dreamer holds well, down only 35% from a week ago. It might be the family movie of choice over the somewhat higher profile Zorro, so look for a weekend decline of slightly under 30%.

North Country's remaining hopes for Oscar notice go down the tubes with a 44.2% Friday-to-Friday decline. It might get that drop under 40%, but that won't help its chances come awards season.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1
Saw II
30.5
2
The Legend of Zorro
16.7
3
Dreamer: Inspired By A True Story
6.4
4
Prime
6.2
5
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
4.6
6
Doom
4.5
7
The Weather Man
3.9
8
North Country
3.7
9
The Fog
3.1
10
Flightplan
2.8

     

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Tuesday, November 1, 2005
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